31 December 2013:
What will 2014 bring?
For those of you excitedly awaiting the arrival of 2014, I would like to offer a huge bucket of cold water to dampen your spirits. If one were to adopt a pragmatic look at the world currently, many places are in conflict / in danger of starting a conflict.1. South Sudan, Central African Republic
South Sudan's in-fighting, is, in Obama's words, at the precipice of a civil war. Essentially, it's a mix of ethnic conflict and political tussles. Yet, it may pit the young country's peoples against one another.
In neighbouring Central African Republic, their conflict is due to religious tensions. Which, again, isn't a good thing for the people there. This may sound propagandic but thank goodness Singapore isn't fraught with such fault lines.
2. China v Japan v South Korea
Something is going to happen between these three countries in 2014 or 2015. My prediction is that China and Japan will go to war in late 2014, and this will spill over to 2015. Judging by the current state of affairs, it's not impossible.
China was recently angered when Japan PM Abe visited the Yazukuni Shrine. Personally, I cannot accept Abe's reasoning as well, that visiting the shrine was a pledge for no more wars. No matter what, China (and South Korea) is bound to get angry.
From what newspapers are saying, Abe plans to change Japan's constitution to a more dominant one that allows an army. China has been showing off its military might in the past two years. All these provide fertile conditions for a military conflict to take place.
3. China, North Korea
All the while I have been sympathetic of N Korea, arguing that it itself is being strangled by the hegemonic and dictatorial America. However, with the execution of Jang Song-thaek, I am less sympathetic to the country, or at least Kim Jong-un.
That guy is a nutcase. Dangerously so, he was thrust into the No. 1 seat when his father died abruptly. There was no training for the job, when it is absolutely necessary, especially in such a country. Therefore, Kim is very unprepared and may not be as rational as his father.
I think by now any hope of him being a reformist would have turned to ashes. He has shown the world that he isn't really ready to change N Korea drastically. The best it would change is more trade fairs, which, who knows were the money flows to eventually.
All this is certain to make China really worried. It has always supported N Korea, because it needs a buffer to S Korea (and USA). But honestly, I think China would rather be frenemies with US than support N Korea any longer, if Kim continues his madness.
4. Singapore
As 2013 has shown, ever since the watershed (this word is turning cliche soon) General Election of 2011, Singapore has never ceased to be exciting. In terms of politics, there is more pluralism.
Recent cases show that PAP isn't white than white, and it may be turning a bit yellow soon if it doesn't scrub hard. WP, however, has also proven that it isn't exactly what it promised in the GE and has let some people down.
Nevertheless, the new measures unveiled by PM Lee during the National Day Rally seem promising. As a left-wing libertarian, I am in support of the measures too and look forward to a more inclusive Singapore. (wah this part cliche max)
There probably aren't any exciting / dangerous things to look out for in 2014. Things in this small country of us happen suddenly; thus far there are no signs of any inherent conflicts waiting to explode.
Yet, we never know. So we can only wait and hope that amidst the dangerous global climate, Singapore emerges unscathed and itself free of major issues. (The train breakdowns, though? Don't count on it getting better next year.)
5. Russia, Ukraine
I am a Russophile. Nevertheless, I too think that Russia is 'in the wrong', for pressuring Ukraine to join its currency union. The sly fox Vladimir Putin terms Ukraine as a brother and wants to show brotherly love, but we all know what he really means.
Yes, what he means is 'join me, or else'. Of course, he isn't that harsh and hostile. Instead, he has resorted to dangling money in front of Ukrainian PM Yanukovych. The PM has accepted his deal. Protests are raging in Ukrainian streets.
This is likely to spread till 2014; there are no signs of it abating. Western Ukraine is quite anti-Russia, given its closeness to western Europe (as compared to Moscow) and possibly also due to Soviet-era repression.
How Yanukovych handles this situation remains to be seen. Meanwhile, Putin must be happily dancing in the Kremlin about his latest win. He has pulled Ukraine over, while Russian media strongly objects any suggestion of Russian pressure.
Putin has demonstrated himself to be a strongman, capable of manoeuvring people and even going against Obama (successfully, as seen in this year's Syria episode). He certainly shows no signs of stopping, especially since he can stay in his seat until 2018.
Also, Sochi Winter Olympics is coming up in 2014. Definitely, Putin wants this event to be done 100% smoothly, to boost Russia's (and his) image. It is interesting to see how things will unfold as the date draws near. Maybe reports on corruption ...?
Edit as of 30 Dec (this was a scheduled post): In two days, Russia's Volgograd has been rocked by two bombing incidents. Both seem to link to Dagestan, a place in Russia which is potentially unstable. Chechenya and Georgia are two problem areas of the Kremlin; not to mention that Dagestan seems to be a hotbed for radical Islamic militants. Exactly what the bombings entail would unfold in 2014. People are saying that it may be a threat to the Sochi Winter Olympics, since Volgograd is relatively near Sochi. Also, Putin's response (and subsequent actions) will certainly play out in 2014.
6. America
The US of A is still in deep shit. On the outside it looks fine but its financial systems are quite screwed up. The 1% thing is still holding true and definitely will not be solved by 2014 (or any time soon, in effect).
As for social issues and 'human rights', the conservative Right is still sure to strike opposing stances on many things, such as abortion. Again, they will employ plenty of fallacies and weird logic or religious bull____ to get their point across.
Obama is personally struggling too, with his failure of Obamacare. Not that I am against Obamacare, but the failure of its roll-out is one big embarrassment to him. I swear some heads will roll / have rolled in the White House.
As for America's pop culture ... it shall continue to suck. Apart from true entertainers like Ellen DeGeneres and Justin Timberlake (to name a few), there will still be the 99% of them who suck, e.g. Miley Cyrus.
Throughout the year, there will still be crappy songs with no actual meaning or substance. Either that, or the lyrics will be full of innuendos relating to sex or drugs or anything deviant. How that is cool, I don't know. Can't they strike a balance?
Last but not least, a portion of Americans will still be stupid. I sound really condescending here, but it's the truth. In 2013 I've seen enough screenshots of Americans posting stupid things, full of spelling errors which should be fixed by primary school.
7. America v Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan
(I am running out of steam and so shall not do deep analysis of affairs but) basically, if America slaps further sanctions on Iran, they are a goner. Iran will belligerently break off the nuclear deal, and America will (as usual) cry that they are the victims.
As for the latter two, if America continues drone strikes, don't blame them for more terrorist attacks. (I'm not saying the attacks are acceptable, either.) Peace should be achieved by talks, not drones. (Else how is America different from terrorists?)
~
That's all I can think of off-hand, what the world is facing / will face in 2014. Despite the really gloomy forecast, there's no reason to keep those party poppers. The above are all based on what has happened so far.
There's still reason to hope for unknown developments that change the situation for the better. These are actually not that uncommon, e.g. Rouhani in Iran. So perhaps the best way forward, in welcoming the new year, would be cautious optimism.
TTFN.